粤友钱 全球知名科技分析师Dan Ives：AI派对才刚开始，2026是“变现之年”，真正的消费者AI革命将由苹果开启｜Alpha峰会

精彩观点：粤友钱

AI派对刚过半： 如果这场AI派对从晚上9点开始，持续到凌晨4点，那么现在才10点半。空头正隔着窗户观望，而多头还在舞池中。并非泡沫的“1996时刻”： 我认为现在更像是1996年（互联网爆发前期），而非1999年（泡沫破裂前夕）。当时的初创公司靠PPT融资，而现在的AI革命是由拥有万亿资产负债表、年产数千亿现金流的大型科技公司主导的。英伟达的“乘数效应”： 在英伟达芯片上每花费1美元，就会在整个科技领域的软件、网络安全和基础设施中产生8到10美元的乘数效应。寻找“第四层衍生效应”： AI 革命的红利正在向纵深传递。第一层是芯片，但第二、三、四层衍生效应才刚刚在软件、网络安全、基础设施和电力领域显现。我认为最大的 Alpha（超额收益）就隐藏在这些衍生效应中。12:1的供需失衡： 目前英伟达芯片的供需比高达12比1，这证明了需求绝非炒作。我们正处于一个史无前例的资本支出（Capex）超级周期。2026是“变现之年”： 2026年将是AI货币化的关键时刻，也是区分赢家和输家的试金石。那些无法执行变现逻辑的公司将被淘汰。苹果开启消费AI时代： 真正的消费者AI革命将由苹果开启。依托24亿台iOS设备，苹果将成为AI触达大众的终极入口，未来甚至会出现专门的AI应用商店。中国在电力与机器人领域的优势： 相比美国，电力在中国不是问题，这在AI竞赛中是巨大的优势。而在物理AI（机器人）领域，中国的人形机器人创新曲线令人惊叹，目前处于全球领先地位。中美“交融”而非脱钩： 美国需要中国，中国也需要美国。这场AI革命的高潮必须依赖两国的“跨界交融”协作，而非对立，两国将更紧密地合作。他相信英伟达和其他公司将追随苹果和特斯拉的道路，苹果和特斯拉成功的一大关键是拥抱北京、拥抱上海、拥抱中国作为一个市场。未来五年的图景： 到2030年，20%的汽车将实现自动驾驶，每10到15个家庭就将拥有一个人形机器人。最看好阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度：中国最大的投资机会将是机器人领域，人形机器人是中国明显领先的领域，无论是上市还是非上市，都有很多优秀的公司。而他们在中国AI生态中最看好的一直是阿里巴巴、百度和腾讯。看涨科技股，涨势持续到2027年：明年将会讨论科技股再上涨25%，相信这轮上涨至少会持续到2027年。

12月19日周五，Wedbush Securities董事总经理、资深科技分析师Dan Ives做客由华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办的「Alpha峰会」，就全球AI产业趋势、中美科技竞合以及2026年的投资机遇做出了深度前瞻。

作为华尔街最具影响力的科技股分析师之一，Dan Ives拥有超过25年的从业经验。他以对苹果（Apple）、特斯拉（Tesla）以及微软（Microsoft）等科技巨头的精准追踪而闻名，被誉为华尔街最坚定的“科技多头”。

当市场在质疑AI估值是否过高时，Dan Ives始终站在前线，用严密的底层逻辑拆解这场“第四次工业革命”。他提出的“AI派对”论和“1995时刻”论，已成为科技投资者的重要参考指南。

以下是华尔街见闻整理的精华内容：

谈AI现状：这是一场持续到凌晨4点的派对

我是丹·艾夫斯，非常兴奋能参加Alpha峰会。我从90年代末就开始研究科技股，这让我拥有了一个独特的视角：我可以将今天的AI革命与当年的互联网泡沫时期进行对比。

我的结论是：这两者完全不可比。我认为我们正在目睹的是真正的“第四次工业革命”，而美国和中国正处于这场竞赛的领跑位置。

如果把AI革命比作一场派对，它从晚上9点开始，预计会持续到凌晨4点。那么现在大约才到10点半。空头们正站在窗外窥视派对，而多头们还在舞池里。虽然未来两年我们可能会遇到各种“惊险时刻”，比如关税问题、地缘政治紧张或对特定公司的担忧，但我认为科技牛市至少会持续到2027年。

现在的科技行业与1999年完全不同。那时平均科技公司的估值是营收的30倍，且很多初创公司融资仅靠一份PPT；而今天，平均估值是盈利的27倍，且主导者是资产负债表上拥有万亿现金、每年产生数千亿自由现金流的科技巨头。这不是泡沫，这是真实的应用案例在落地。

谈衍生机遇：英伟达只是序幕，第二、三、四层效应刚开始

大家都在看英伟达，但在我们的研究中，在英伟达芯片上每花1美元，就会在芯片、软件、网络安全、基础设施和电力领域产生8到10美元的乘数效应。

我们现在正处于一个10年建设期的第3年。目前的焦点还在模型和基础设施上，但真正的Alpha收益将来自第二、第三乃至第四层衍生效应。这就是为什么我们推出了AI 30 ETF（代码：IVES），旨在追踪这30个最终的赢家。

目前，英伟达芯片的供需比仍维持在12:1的惊人水平。这意味着对于华为、AMD、博通以及美光、SK海力士等厂商来说，市场空间依然巨大。

此外，电力将成为下一个关键点。当20%的公司走上AI道路时，当前的电力供应将无法支撑，因此核电、小型模块化反应堆（SMR）等技术将成为中美之间新的“军备竞赛”领域。

谈中国机遇：机器人领域正引领全球

关于中国，我想强调两点：

第一，电力优势。相比美国，中国在电力布局（尤其是核电）上拥有显著优势，这对于能耗巨大的AI数据中心至关重要。

第二，物理AI（机器人）。我认为中国AI生态中最具吸引力的机会在于机器人。在人形机器人领域，中国显然处于领先地位。这种创新曲线是令人瞩目的。未来的AI不仅是ChatGPT那样的对话框，它将体现在自动驾驶、出行和各种物理形态中。

尽管中美之间存在贸易紧张局势，但我认为这种局势会降温。苹果和特斯拉的成功经验已经证明了“拥抱中国市场”的重要性。美国需要中国的供应链和需求，中国也需要美国的技术，这种“跨界交融”是AI革命达到高潮的必要条件。

谈2026前瞻：从“炒作”转向“变现”

很多投资者问我，华尔街的耐心还有多少？我认为2026年将是真正的“货币化之年”。

此前我们处于“1995时刻”，现在进入了“1996时刻”。2026年将成为真假AI公司的试金石。届时，投资者将不再满足于在PPT里提到30次AI，而是要看到真实的收入贡献。

消费者端的AI爆发也将在2026年进入全面阶段。苹果将开启这一进程——随着明年初苹果与谷歌Gemini的合作落地，24亿台iOS设备将变身AI终端。未来，我们将看到全新的AI应用商店，诞生出一整个面向消费者的AI技术类别。

总而言之，我们正生活在第四次工业革命中，这是一个激动人心的选股者市场。我们看好科技牛市的延续。

演讲全文如下：

一、Part One：AI革命全景与中美竞合 

1、「AI派对」比喻：盛宴刚刚开始

Dan Ives 01:32

This is Dan Ives you know Im super excited

我是丹·艾夫斯 我感到超级兴奋

to be here talking to you The Alpha Summit you know

能在这里和大家交流 Alpha峰会

I wanna be there in person Hopefully next year will be in

我真的很想亲自参加 希望明年能够到场

you know and really just to spend cost 20、30 minutes

我将花上二三十分钟

talking about you know where I see things going

来聊聊我对AI革命走向的看法

in terms of the AI revolution Okay just take a step back

关于AI革命 好吧 先退一步讲

You know Ive covered tech stocks going back to the late 90s

你知道 我从90年代末就开始研究科技股

So I think my perspective is a little unique

所以我认为我的视角有点独特

because I could compare to dot com bubble and burst

因为我可以将互联网泡沫和破裂时期

where were today with the AI revolution

与今天我们所在的AI革命时期进行对比

I view it as an Apples oranges comparison

但我认为这种比较并不恰当 就像是拿苹果和橘子相比

I think this is truly a fourth industrial revolution

我认为这真是一场第四次工业革命

that we see taking hold here Globally looking essentially

我们正看到它在此扎根 从全球范围来看 本质上可以说

its really US and China that are running

真正在奔跑并赢得这场

and winning this AI revolution race

AI革命竞赛的是美国和中国

In our view We are call it you know if I think about

在我们看来 我们有个比喻 如果你把它想象成

like an AI party it start off is 9 PM

一场从晚上9点开始的AI派对

Its now about 10:30 PM In the AI party

那么现在大约才进行到晚上10点半

That party goes to 4 AM And there at the time

这场派对会持续到凌晨4点 而在那个时候

at this party this AI party therell be glass

在这场派对上 这场AI派对上 会有玻璃

in the dance for DJ will stop playing music

被打碎 DJ会停止播放音乐

Maybe cops come to the party for a little

可能警察还会来派对一小会儿

Partys going to 4 AM Now the bearers watch

派对会持续到凌晨4点 现在空头们正

this party through the windows And its 6 AM

透过窗户观看这场派对 而到了早上6点

When the bulls and the bears meet up

多头和空头才会碰面

The bulls at Parina in the bears Look it speaks

多头在派对上 空头在外面 看吧 这说明

to my view its a tech bull market next two years

我的观点 未来两年将是科技股的牛市

You know both us as well as China tech

无论是美国还是中国的科技股

it speaks to our lives AI 30 you know

这印证了我们的看法 比如AI30清单里

we have a number of China please there as well

也有好几家中国公司

And its an arms race thats playing out across the world

而且这是一场在全球范围内展开的军备竞赛

 

2、乘数效应：第二、三、四层衍生机遇才刚起步

Dan Ives 03:16

But the reality is that for every dollar spent

但现实是 在英伟达芯片上每花费一美元

on Nvidia chip theres an eight to ten dollar multiplier

就会在整个科技领域的其他部分

across the rest of tech It speaks to our view

产生八到十美元的乘数效应 这印证了我们的观点

that the 2nd3rd4th derivatives are just starting

即第二 第三 第四层衍生效应才刚刚开始

to play out across chips across software

在芯片 软件 网络安全

across cyber security as well as infrastructure and power

以及基础设施和电力领域显现

Dan Ives 03:37

And you know I think when you look at US and China

而且 我认为当你观察美国和中国时

theres two you know much different markets going on

会发现这是两个非常不同的市场

I think when it comes to what we see in China

我认为 就我们在中国所看到的情况而言

from all of our time you know spent youre in the region

基于我们在该地区投入的所有研究时间

 

3、中美对比：中国电力优势与英伟达的关键角色

Dan Ives 03:51

power is not an issue in China And I think thats something

我们发现电力在中国不是问题 我认为这将是

thats gonna be huge advantage versus US right now

目前相对于美国的一个巨大优势

especially when it comes to nuclear

尤其是在核电方面

Its a big focus terms what we see relative to

这是我们相对于美国 在电力布局方面

you know the power plays Look theres one chip

重点关注的事情 如果

in the world if you wanna AI revolution thats Nvidia

你想要推动AI革命 世界上有一款芯片不可或缺 那就是英伟达

And its why also we think its just more

这也是为什么我们认为

and more important for Nvidia to get back

英伟达重新进入中国市场

into the China market and its a big part

变得越来越重要 而且这是我们

of what we see playing out across the board

所看到的全局发展中很重要的一部分

You have domestic competition has happened in China

中国已经出现了本土竞争

Huawei and others from a chip perspective to

比如华为和在芯片领域的其他公司

theyll narrow that gap But I continue to view

他们将缩小与英伟达的差距 但我仍然认为

that Nvidia is years ahead Anyone else in the market

英伟达领先市场其他任何公司数年

And I think thats why when it comes to China big tech

因此我认为 这就是为什么中国的科技巨头

Alibaba Baidu Tencent others like theyre gonna want

如阿里巴巴 百度 腾讯等

Nvidia chips for now And this is gonna be

目前仍然想要获得英伟达的芯片

pure competition as it plays out And I view that

而这将演变成一场纯粹的竞争

as a very positive thing that happens across the world

我认为这对全球来说都是一件非常积极的事情

because look the models are gonna get cheaper

因为你看 模型将会变得更便宜

whether its DeepSeek whether its models in the US

无论是中国的DeepSeek 还是美国的大语言模型

from an LLM perspective the values in the data

这其中数据的价值

it speaks to why were so bullish And in Is like

恰恰说明了我们为何如此乐观

Palantir MongoDB Snowflake It speaks wild like

这方面的例子 比如Palantir、MongoDB、Snowflake 它们就非常能说明问题

you know our top China plays been Alibaba you know

我们看好的中国公司首选是阿里巴巴

because of you know where I see them playing

因为 根据我对他们布局的看法

I think Baidu and Tencent are also gonna be

我认为百度和腾讯也将在

huge players in terms of you know where this market plays out

这个市场的发展中成为重要参与者

But were in year three of a 10 year build out

但我们正处在一个十年建设期的第三年

the AI revolution thats gonna be built out across

这场AI革命将不仅在企业领域

not just enterprise but also across the consumer environment

也会在消费环境中全面展开建设

Dan Ives 05:29

I mean like when I think about the future

我的意思是 当我思考未来

autonomous robotics physical AI its why I believe

自主机器人 物理AI 这就是为什么我相信

you know Tesla allowing the video applied

特斯拉允许将视频应用

to the best physical AI plays in the world

于世界上最好的物理AI项目

But within 20% of cars are gonna be autonomous by 2030

但到2030年 20%的汽车将实现自动驾驶

within one of every 10 to 15 households is gonna have

每10到15个家庭中就有一个将拥有

a human like robot You only look out next five six years

一个人形机器人 你只需展望未来五六年

Thats what AI is Ottoman you gonna mean

那就是AI的未来图景 而AI的意义

its not just about ChatGPT

绝不仅仅是关于ChatGPT

Dan Ives 06:06

And I think this is something where less than 3%

我认为 在美国只有不到3%的公司

of companies in the US have gone down the AI path

真正走上了AI道路

You know you take out China and Asia its basically minimal

如果除去中国和亚洲 这个比例基本上微乎其微

call what less than 1% the amount of companies

可以说 不到1%的公司

have gone down the AI path Middle East just starting

走上了AI道路 而中东刚刚开始

sovereigns just start I mean this arms race is just

主权基金刚刚起步 我的意思是 这场军备竞赛

starting to play out today Theres look theres more

今天才刚刚开始 目前为止今天世界上

data centers under construction today inactive

在建的数据中心数量

data centers in the world

甚至超过了已投入运营的数据中心

 

4、并非泡沫：与1996年而非1999年对比

Dan Ives 06:37

And you know thats why I think it took an exciting time

而且 这就是为什么我认为

in terms of whats really a true fourth industrial

这是一个激动人心的时刻

revolution playing out You know we try I spend so much

因为一场真正的第四次工业革命正在上演

of my time trying to pick the stocks that will outperform

我们尝试 我花费大量时间试图挑选

in this market But the reality is that were gonna go

在这个市场中表现优异的股票 但现实是

through other white knuckle parrots DeepSeek tariff issues

我们将经历其他惊险时刻 DeepSeek关税问题

You know different worries

还有各种担忧

about in you know Nvidia on any given day

比如随时可能影响英伟达的消息

OpenAI too big to fail circular financing

OpenAI“大而不能倒”的风险 循环融资问题

But I dont view the like to me this is a tackle market

但我不这么看 对我来说 这是一个

that goes on at least another two years And I think

至少还会持续两年的市场 并且我认为

were gonna be talking about tech stocks up another 25%

我们明年将会讨论科技股再上涨25%

next year And we believe this goes on through 2027 at least

我们相信这至少会持续到2027年

I view this much more as in 1996 moment

我视这更像是1996年的时刻

then in 1999 2000 bubble moment

而非1999年、2000年的泡沫时刻

I mean the biggest private companies in the world

我意思是 看看世界上最大的私营公司

soon they'll be public Anthropic SpaceX

可能很快就要上市了 比如Anthropic、SpaceX

OpenAI XAI and you get and you go out So go out of place

OpenAI、xAI 等等 还有

in China as well You were not in a bubble

中国的公司也一样 你们并不在泡沫中

And I think its very easy for the Bears to talk about a bubble

我认为熊市论者很容易空谈泡沫

Dan Ives 07:57

But just for some comparison like in the tech

但仅仅做一些比较 比如在科技领域

go back to late 90s like the average tech company

回到90年代末 那时平均科技公司

is training at 30 times revenue Today the average tech

是按30倍营收估值 今天平均科技公司

Im gonna trading 27 times earnings You go back then startup

是按27倍盈利估值 回想当时初创公司

Series A Series B Series C funding Powerpoint

A轮、B轮、C轮融资 靠的是PPT

which is really the sort of the use case today

这基本上就是今天的情况

This is being run by big tech trillion dollars

而现在 这由大型科技公司主导

in the balance sheet generating 3 to 400 billion a year

它们资产负债表上有万亿美元 每年产生

a free cash flow Plus its real use cases that are playing out粤友钱

3到4千亿美元自由现金流 加上正在企业

across the enterprise across the consumer

和消费者领域上演的真实应用案例

Dan Ives 08:33

And that to me is what the AI revolutions about

这对我来说就是AI革命的意义

I think the innovation thats happening in China specifically

我认为中国正在发生的创新

around robotics round autonomous around mobility its stunning

特别是在机器人、自动驾驶、出行领域 令人惊叹

Its eye popping And I think thats something thats

令人瞩目 我认为这将继续下去

just gonna continue its gonna accelerate But it also speaks

并且加速 但这同样说明了

to my view US China trade tensions Thats gonna cool

我的观点 中美贸易紧张局势将降温

And I think thats a very good thing for the AI revolution

我认为这对AI革命是非常好的事情

cuz I dont wanna see a decoupled sort of emy US and China

因为我不想看到中美某种形式的脱钩

I think the way that this revolution is gonna play out

我认为这场革命的发展方式

youre gonna have more and more cross pollination

将是越来越多的交融

between US and China

在中美之间

There will be security issues on both sides that

双方都会关注安全问题

theyll focus on But I actually view

但相反我实际上认为

both countries working closer together right In the opposite

两国将更紧密地合作 对吧

because US needs China Chinese US net

因为美国需要中国 中国需要美国

Dan Ives 09:35

And thats something that I you know reiterate across the board

这是我 我反复强调的一点

is why I believe you know Nvidia and the others are gonna

这就是为什么我相信 英伟达和其他公司

follow the path of apple and Tesla I mean a big part

将追随苹果和特斯拉的道路 我意思是

of the success at apple and Tesla its embracing Beijing

苹果和特斯拉成功的一大关键是拥抱北京

its embracing Shanghai its embracing China as a market

拥抱上海 拥抱中国作为一个市场

not just as a supplier but from a demand perspective

不仅仅是作为供应商 更是从需求角度

selling into Consumer shown in the enterprises

向企业和消费者销售

And I think you know I think where were going you see Indian

而且我认为 在我们前进的方向上

some other markets where theres a lot of opportunities

你看到印度等其他市场有很多机会

But the reality is this is really US and China thats run

但现实是 确实是美国和中国在引领

in this AI revolution And what I see from companies look

这场AI革命 而我从公司层面看到的是一看

60% to 70% of data than average Global 2000 company has

全球2000强公司所拥有的数据中

theyve never been able to access before So is this all plays out

有60%到70%是他们以前从未能访问的 因此随着这一切展开

the use cases thats gonna happen across pharmaceutical

将在制药 生物技术 政府

biotech government retail I think youre gonna be stunning

零售等领域发生的应用案例 我认为将会是惊人的

and it speaks to my view like why were so bullish on tech

而这恰恰说明了我的观点 即我们为何如此看好科技

I was so bullish in the AI revolution And you know also

我如此看好AI革命 而且你知道

extremely bullish in terms of everything thats happened

我对正在发生的一切也极为看好

thats just in the US boards happen in China Because I think

美国发生的 同样在中国发生 因为我认为

the innovation that happening there is really going to

那里正在发生的创新 将真正

and then sort of dictate strategically by the areas

从战略上决定我们未来

that were gonna be going in the world both from

在全球范围内要进入的领域

a consumer enterprise perspective

这既包括消费者层面 也包括企业层面

 

二、Part Two 投资框架与衍生机遇

1、投资载体：聚焦30个赢家的AI 30 ETF

Dan Ives 16:45

Okay So you know obviously weve talked about like

好的 那么 显然我们已经多次谈论过

our thesis a lot in terms of AI revolution but I think

我们在AI革命方面的核心观点 但我认为

its really important to talk about you know how I sort of see

真正重要的是来谈谈 我是如何看待

the second or fourth derivatives playing out both on the

第二乃至第四层衍生效应 如何在企业端

enterprise was on the consumer side but we have our ETF

和消费者端同时展开的 但我们有自己的AI30 ETF

the IVES ETF So in New York Stock Exchange look

即IVES ETF（代码IVES） 在纽约证券交易所

in the big thing that we talk about are the 30 winners

我们谈论的一大重点就是那30个赢家

Like who are the 30 winners in AI that are ultimately gonna

比如最终将受益的AI领域30个赢家是谁

you know benefit and you could look up DTR for theyll show

你可以查阅DTR 他们会给你看名单

you the list you know in terms of the Alpha conference

相关的名单 在Alpha峰会上（会公布）

But a big part of this is its not just about Nvidia

但很重要的一点是 这不仅关乎英伟达

Its not just about Microsoft its about the derivative

也不仅仅关乎微软 而是关乎

beneficiaries that are playing out across the board

正在全面展开的衍生受益者

You know the categories that we talk about are chips

我们谈论的类别包括芯片

software cyber security you know autonomous robotics

软件 网络安全 自主机器人

power energy as well as infrastructure

电力 能源 以及基础设施

 

2、消费端引爆点：苹果与24亿iOS设备

Dan Ives 17:51

Cuz its my view today we havent even seen

因为在我看来 今天我们甚至还没有看到

the consumer AI revolution I I its only really enterprise

消费者AI革命 它目前真的只是企业级

but the consumer AI revolution are they allowed that

但消费者AI革命 准确来说

really is gonna start with apple Yeah I think when you

真正将由苹果开启 是的 我认为当你

think about apple and ultimately them partnering with Google Gemini

想到苹果 以及他们最终与谷歌Gemini的合作

you know which is what we see happen early next year

这正是我们预计明年初会发生的事

2.4 billion iOS devices 1.5 billion iPhones

届时将触及24亿台iOS设备 15亿部iPhone

I mean the consumer AI revolution ultimately is gonna

我的意思是 消费者AI革命最终将

go through Cupertino And I think as you start to see this

由苹果引领 我认为随着你开始看到

all play out across meta across Google across apple

这一切在Meta、谷歌、苹果

across what I see is names like Roblox Shopify And

以及我所看到的如Roblox、Shopify等公司展开

you know I think when it comes to China some of the stuff

而且你知道 我认为当谈到中国时

were gonna see when it comes to Baidu Alibaba

我们将会看到百度、阿里巴巴等公司的情况

because this revolution the use case phase is just starting

因为这场革命的应用案例阶段才刚刚开始

I mean Palantir is really kind of in front and center

就以Palantir为例 它确实处于前沿和中心位置

but use cases are just starting to play out across the board

但各种应用案例其实才刚刚开始全面铺开

You can name like MongoDB Snowflake is good examples

像MongoDB、Snowflake这些都是很好的例子

Dan Ives 19:03

Companies as they build the infrastructure the saw

公司在建设基础设施的同时

I think 2026 is really gonna be defined by the use cases

我认为2026年真正将由

in software I think thats really gonna be sort of

软件领域的应用案例来定义 我认为这将成为

front and center you know as companies now go down regards

前沿和中心 随着各公司现在开始

whether its pharmaceutical energy medical devices

沿着这条路径前进 无论是制药 能源 医疗设备

government focus on the use case of this And I think

还是政府部门 都在聚焦于AI应用案例 我认为

investors are still underestimating the scale and scope

投资者仍然低估了其

in terms of what this is all gonna look like you know

未来的整体规模和范围

from a use case perspective I think on the consumer side

从应用案例的角度来看 我认为在消费者端

look all the capex mean take a step back

看所有这些资本支出 我的意思是退一步讲

 

3、核心矛盾：英伟达芯片12:1的供需失衡

Dan Ives 19:46

Going into 2025 Investors thought 230 billion

进入2025年时 投资者认为2300亿美元

was gonna be big tech cat backs Instead its probably me

将是大型科技公司的资本支出 但实际可能

380 billion going into next year initial Surely I think

进入明年的初始资本支出就达到3800亿 当然我认为

straight as at 4500 4600 billion its probably gonna be

可能会直接到4500 4600亿美元 并且很可能

north to 500 billion

可能会超过5000亿

Dan Ives 20:06

We are in a capex super cycle thats playing out

我们正处于一个资本支出超级周期之中

across the board And I think thats so important

它正在全面展开 我认为这对于理解

in terms of understanding like where the hyperscalers play

超大规模云服务商的布局至关重要

Thoes who in chips you know what we saw with Google and TPU

在芯片领域 我们看到了谷歌自研TPU

I think thats just the start of Youre gona

我认为这仅仅是个开始 你会看到

Dan Ives 20:25

Right now demand the supply for Nvidia chips is 12 to 1

目前英伟达芯片的供需比是12比1

Based on all of our work theres not enough

根据我们所有的研究 根本没有足够的

Nvidia chips to go around for these use cases

英伟达芯片来满足这些应用案例的需求

Thats gonna be hugely beneficial

这将是巨大的利好

Dan Ives 20:41

Huawei AMD Broadcom I mean I could argue Micron

对于华为 AMD 博通 我意思是我还可以提美光

like when you start theme at sponging the memory pliers

比如当你开始考虑内存厂商时

you would think of SK Hynix next You know there are so many

你接下来会想到SK海力士 还有很多

other memory players that we see playing out across the board

其他内存厂商也参与其中 我们正在全面看到

thats the derivative beneficiaries and its not just about Nvidia

那就是衍生受益者 而这不仅仅是英伟达

And I think thats thats important thing that we talk about

我认为这是我们讨论的一个重要方面

Its about the derivative beneficiaries And then you think

就是关于这些衍生受益者 然后你再想想

about like the Neoclouds CoreWeave Nebius you know

像Neoclouds CoreWeave Nebius这些公司

those are gonna be such important players in terms of

它们将成为非常重要的参与者

as a stack in the AI infrastructure And then theres the power

作为AI基础设施堆栈的一部分 然后是电力

like how do you hows the power gonna work I think nuclear

比如你怎么 电力将如何运作 我认为核电

is gonna continue be the biggest play You need to buy nuclear

将继续是最大的机会 你需要购买

but I think you know you go about SMRs nuclear fusion

但我想你也知道 小型模块化反应堆和核聚变

technology I think this could mean an arms race that plays out

这些技术 我认为这可能意味着

across US and China

在中美之间展开的军备竞赛

 

4、未来瓶颈与机遇：电力与基础设施

Dan Ives 21:38

Look 3% of companies have gone down the AI path

现在只有3%的公司走上了AI道路

When you get 20% you dont have enough power

当这一数字达到20%时 电力就会不足

especially what we see relative in the US And I think

尤其根据我们在美国看到的情况 我认为

infrastructure and power are gonna be huge investment plays

基础设施和电力将是巨大的投资机会

but also technology plays

也是技术机会

Dan Ives 21:55

I think from an investing perspective you know that

我认为从投资角度

theres so many white knuckle moments that weve seen

我们在这场交易中看到了

in this trade over the last two three years and well have

过去两三年里很多惊险时刻

more in 2026 But I think that just creates the opportunitites

2026年还会有更多 但我想这恰恰创造了

to ensure the winners and who you wanna own rather than

机会去确保赢家和你想要持有的公司

you know viewing is the time to hit the elevator

而不是认为现在是该退场的时候

I think many times for me cover and tech go back 25 years

对我来说 研究科技股25年 有很多次

There are moments where these wide knuck moments where

曾令人紧张的惊险时刻

you feel like to trade over everyones head for the elevator

你会感觉市场估值已高得离谱 是时候该离场了

We have 3 to 4 trillions being spent in AI

但现在 正有3到4万亿美元投入AI领域

Dan Ives 22:36

We are so early days relative to a view of autonomous robotics

相较于我们构想的自主机器人未来 我们还在非常早期

the AI infrastructure is gonna be built up across the enterprise

目前AI基础设施在企业端的建设

The consumer AI revolution has even started today

甚至消费者AI革命今天都尚未真正开始

I mean today were still at the model stage

我的意思是今天我们还停留在模型阶段

I mean my view is that youre gonna have an AI app store

我的看法是 未来在苹果上将会出现一个AI应用商店

on apple Youre gonna have especially within China you know

你将拥有 特别是中国

when you think about like the super rap concept and what

当你想到超级应用的概念 以及

you see playing out youre gonna have almost a whole

以及你看到的趋势 几乎将会诞生

another category for AI technology for the consumer

一整个全新的面向消费者的AI技术类别

And I think its being underestimated the scale and scoop

而且我认为这场AI革命的规模和范围

of this AI revolution thats being played out You know

被严重低估了 要知道

but from an infrastructure perspective as well as it starts

无论是从基础设施的角度 还是从它开始

hit the consumer and the rest of the enterprise

触及消费者和企业其他部门之时

And the amount of private companies that are gonna benefit

将受益的私营公司数量

the amount of capital thats gonna go out after this

以及之后将涌入的资金规模

Dan Ives 23:32

But I dont but just to keep reiterating its not a bubble

但我必须再次强调 这不是泡沫

Its the early days Its year three of a 10 year build out

这是早期阶段 是一个十年建设期的第三年

that right now is basically US and China When you start

目前主要是美国和中国 当你开始

seeing other countries getting involved thats gonna spread out

看到其他国家参与进来 它会向全球扩散

around the world Look at Europe is when it comes to AI

看看世界 欧洲在AI方面

theyre nowhere right Look at Middle East theyre just starting

他们几乎毫无进展 看看中东 他们刚刚起步

Look at the governments just starting And I think this arms race

看看各国政府也才开始 我认为这场军备竞赛

plays out its such an exciting time from an investment perspective

的发展 从投资角度来看是激动人心的时刻

Dan Ives 24:03

But I think the biggest opportunity is trying to find

但我认为最大的机会在于寻找

the second third fourth derivatives across the AI revolution

AI革命中的第二 第三 第四层衍生效应

I think that to me is where the biggest alpha is gonna be

我认为对我来说 最大的alpha收益就在于此

And thats looking thats what we do with our AI 30

而这正是我们通过AI30 ETF所做的

in our ETF what we talk about four times a year we change it

在我们的ETF中 我们每年讨论四次并调整成分

cuz there could be new winners new losers in terms of

因为可能会有新的赢家和输家

whos gonna benefit I think But also I think its important

就谁将受益而言 但我认为同样重要的是

just cuz a company says AI 30 times in a conference call

不能仅因一家公司在电话会提30次AI

where they put it 30 times in a Powerpoint doesnt make them

或在PPT里放30次 就认定它是AI标的

an AI play I think we are trying to separate the winners

我认为我们需要区分赢家

from the losers Who are the pretenders who are the real ones

和输家 哪些是滥竽充数 哪些是真正玩家

And thats gonna play out across 2026 Thanks

而这将在2026年见分晓 谢谢

 

三、Part Three:AI货币化、风险与中国机遇

1、2026定义：货币化之年与真假AI公司试金石

Dan Ives 27:05

Can So I think look I think 2026 is gonna be

可以 我认为 听着 我认为2026年将是

a monetization year for AI Look and again I dont view it

AI的货币化之年 我再强调 我不认同

I almost get offended when people call it hype

当人们称之为炒作时 我几乎感到被冒犯

Like if demand to supply for Nvidia chips was less than 1 to 1

如果英伟达芯片的供需比小于1比1

maybe hype but its 12 to 1 Like were just starting

那可能是炒作 但现在是12比1 我们才刚刚开始

this investment cycle and its a capex super cycle

这个投资周期 这是一个资本支出超级周期

Dan Ives 27:33

But I do believe that monetization is gonna be key in 2026

但我确实相信货币化将是2026年的关键

I think thats just gonna separate the winners and losers

我认为这将区分赢家和输家

I think investors patience Investors have been patient

我认为投资者是有耐心的 他们一直很有耐心

They dont wanna see their companies be on the outside looking in

他们不希望自己的公司在

when it comes to AI arms race but I do think

这场AI军备竞赛中掉队 但我确实认为

2026 is gonna be really the year of monetization

2026年将真正成为货币化之年

that plays out across AI You know it started as a 1995 moment

在整个AI领域展开 它始于一个“1995时刻”

Its now a 1996 moment But I dont view this as a 1999

现在是一个“1996时刻” 但我不认为这是1999年

2000 bubble moment

2000年的泡沫时刻

Dan Ives 28:09

I think the monetization now is just gonna start

我认为货币化现在才刚刚开始

to play out across enterprise and on the consumer

在企业端和消费者端展开

I do think on the capex super cycle look youre building out

我确实认为 在这个资本支出超级周期中

Dubai from the sand 20 years ago Its Vegas in the 1950s

就像20年前在沙漠中建迪拜 像1950年代建拉斯维加斯

where the desert I mean thats where were in terms of

当时还是沙漠 我的意思是 在基础设施建设方面

the infrastructure being built out But the winners will emerge

我们就处在这个阶段 但赢家会出现

and the ones that dont execute theyll fall by the wayside

而那些执行不力的将被淘汰

And I think thats gonna step up in 2026

我认为这在2026年将更加明显

Dan Ives 28:43

I think 2026 is gonna be much more of a stock pickers market

我认为2026年将更像是一个选股者的市场

They may be just owning the trend of this after

他们可能只是跟随这个趋势

And now I continue to view the biggest opportunity is gonna be

而我仍然认为最大的机会将是

the second third fourth derivatives across software across chips

软件 芯片 网络安全 基础设施等领域的

across cyber security across infrastructure I think that continues

第二 第三 第四层衍生效应 我认为这将继续

to be the biggest beneficiaries

成为最大的受益者

Dan Ives 29:09

And to you know investors once they are losing patience

而且 投资者一旦开始失去耐心

I think investors wanna see monetization And I think

我认为投资者希望看到货币化 我认为

weve started to see that when names like Palantir

我们已经开始看到 当像Palantir

and others by that really come to the forefront in 2026

等公司真正在2026年走到前沿时

 

2、最大风险？地缘政治紧张或趋缓

Dan Ives 30:08

Look US needs China China needs US I think geopolitical tensions

听着 美国需要中国 中国需要美国 我认为地缘政治紧张

have been front and center And I think especially go back to April

一直是核心问题 尤其是回想四月

and everything we saw between DC and Beijing

我们在华盛顿和北京之间看到的一切

The reality is like the black swan events or the nervousness

现实是 黑天鹅事件或市场担忧

I see more of a cooling of tensions geopolitical between

我更多地看到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势

US and China Cuz the reality is that I think both countries

的降温 因为现实是 我认为两国

both governments have a recognition of needing each other

两国政府都认识到彼此需要

And guess what when you look at the rest of the world

而且你猜怎么着 当你看看世界其他地区

this is US and China running away with the AI revolution

这是美国和中国在AI革命中遥遥领先

versus every other country And I think you know in terms of

而其他国家望尘莫及 我认为

worries about

就担忧而言

Dan Ives 30:54

Policy issues I think this the Nvidia not being able to sell

政策问题 我认为 英伟达无法向中国销售

into China is really been front and center And I think

一直是焦点 而且我认为

the US government coming around on this is very important because

美国政府在这个问题上的转变非常重要 因为

in the future I see maybe even like restricted or blocked chips

未来我甚至看到 也许像芯片限制或禁运

could on the other side like could BYD sell cars in the US

可能另一方面 比如比亚迪能在美国卖车吗

Could Nio sell cars in the US Theyre obviously going all after

蔚来能在美国卖车吗 他们显然正全力

Europe and Australia But Im just saying like I see

进军欧洲和澳大利亚 但我是说 就像我看到

in the future theres gonna be security issues national security

未来将会有安全问题 国家安全问题

and both sides I see much more of a cross-pollination

而双方 我认为中美之间

between US and China actually working more closer together

实际上会有更多的交融合作 更紧密地协作

than the opposite And I think thats very important because

而非对立 我认为这非常重要 因为

I dont think we see the heights of the AI revolution unless

我认为我们将无法见证AI革命的真正高潮

we have this cross-pollination that's going on But there are

除非我们保持这种跨领域的充分交流与合作

and there are gonna be other phases like look you need

当然接下来还会有其他阶段 比如说你需要有

cyber security for companies to put their data into

网络安全 公司才能放心将数据投入到

all these use cases You know as my on a public company side

所有这些应用场景中 就我所在的上市公司方面而言

Im chairman of ORBS on NASDAQ And a big thing we focus on

我是纳斯达克上市公司ORBS的董事长 我们关注的一大重点是

human-proof authentication because I think with bots and

真人身份验证 因为我认为随着机器人和

a lot of fakes in the robotic world I think human proof

机器人领域大量仿冒品的出现 我认为真人身份验证

identification is gonna be more and more important in terms of

将变得越来越重要

where that goes But its an exciting time in terms of where we are

就其发展而言 但就我们所处的位置而言 这是一个激动人心的时刻

 

3、中国AI最诱人机会：机器人领域引领全球

Dan Ives 32:50

Look I mean our favorite plays in the China AI stack

我意思是我们在中国AI生态中最看好的

have been Alibaba and Baidu I think Tencent as well

一直是阿里巴巴和百度 我认为腾讯也是

from a big China perspective in terms of the tech stack

从中国大型科技公司的角度看 就技术堆栈而言

I think the biggest investment opportunities in China

我认为中国最大的投资机会

is gonna be in robotics I mean to me humanoid robotics

将是机器人领域 我意思是 对我来说 人形机器人

is where they are clearly in the lead There's a lot of companies

是他们明显领先的领域 有很多公司

on the private side and I think on public side as well

在私营方面 我认为在上市公司方面也是如此

that are really starting to emerge And I would say that

正真正开始涌现 我会说

when it comes to China AI like youre now seeing

当谈到中国AI时 你现在看到

domestic competition increase across the board and thats

本土竞争全面加剧

a great thing Youre gonna have Nvidia and others selling

这是件好事 英伟达和其他公司将向中国销售

into China But I think the innovation curve that is going on

但我认为中国正在发生的创新曲线

in China is really impressive And I see this as something

确实令人印象深刻 我将此视为

thats gonna be going on for the next decade but its really

将在未来十年持续的事情 但这真的将是

gonna be about physical AI Its gonna be about applications

关于物理AI 它将关乎面向消费者的应用

for the consumer as well as enterprise software building out

以及企业级软件的进一步构建

further and further And I think you can see why the big tech

我认为你可以看到为什么

companies in China trying to expand their tentacles

中国的大型科技公司试图扩展他们的触角

not just on the consumer side but on the enterprise side

不仅在消费者方面 也在企业方面

And I think the robotics is gonna be huge area that we are

我认为机器人将是我们将要看到的

gonna see in the sort of land grab

某种“AI圈地运动”中的一个巨大领域

 

结束语

Dan Ives 

So you know you know I so Id also say I can closing

所以 所以我还要说 在我结束前

you know you could reach me you know on social media

你可以通过社交媒体联系我

and LinkedIn Twitter dives tech And you know I just

LinkedIn、Twitter @DivesTech

look forward to the next Alpha Summit to being there

我非常期待下一次Alpha峰会

in person rather than you know over Zoom here from New York

能够亲自到场 而不是像现在这样从纽约通过视频远程参与

And its an exciting time for all of us Were living

这对我们所有人来说都是激动人心的时刻

in a fourth industrial revolution and it just makes it

我们正处在第四次工业革命中

that much exciting where were

这让我们所处的位置更加令人兴奋

And I think the tech bull market we see

我认为我们正处于科技牛市之中

And Thank you

非常感谢粤友钱

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。

信通配资提示：文章来自网络，不代表本站观点。